Discuss the sampling method. If it wasn’t a simple random sample of likely voters, why not?

Statistics
Paper , Order, or Assignment Requirements

Option A. Write a paper examining and discussing the methods and results of political polling for this presidential election. This should be research-based and not simply offer your opinion of the validity of the polls as reported. Find and summarize relevant details for one particular poll or polling organization. Some issues to consider and investigate: Discuss the sampling method. If it wasn’t a simple random sample of likely voters, why not? If the poll over-sampled democratic voters and under-sampled republican voters using stratified sampling (some polls reported 55% and 45%, respectively), why? What effect did this have? Telephone survey of land-line numbers? Cell phones? Internet? Voluntary response sample? Possible bias? Discuss the sample size and the related margin of error that was reported. What questions were asked? Did the wording or sequencing of the questions affect the responses or results? Could the responses have been biased due to what has been termed “social desirability bias”? Perhaps the media created a national climate that suggested you didn’t have half a brain if you didn’t support their preferred candidate. So maybe respondents answered what would be acceptable which may have differed from their actual views. Other important or relevant factors? I would guess that a concise and well-written paper between two and four pages could adequately address these issues. Option B. This option extends the philosophy that the best way to learn a subject is to teach it. That is one reason I encourage you to discuss the class ideas with your classmate contacts. Perhaps we can extend this to the assessment of statistical understanding. Write eight original multiple choice questions covering material from Chapters 4 through 7 in the text. There should be two questions from each of the four chapters. The questions should have well-chosen choices in addition to the correct response. Each question should be substantial and assess one or more important statistical concepts. Put some quality thought into this. Writing your eight questions and the responses should be your individual effort, not group work. For each question, discuss why you felt that topic was important and how your question assesses it well. Also explain the rationale for the incorrect choices you provided.

 

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