What is the expected return on this investment?
What is the expected return on this investment?
Assignment Week 4 3
Case Problem 11.1 The Bond Investment Decisions of Dave and Marlene Carter
Dave and Marlene Carter live in the Boston area, where Dave has a successful orthodontics practice. Dave and Marlene have built up a sizable investment portfolio and have always had a major portion of their investments in fixed-income securities. They adhere to a fairly aggressive investment posture and actively go after both attractive current income and substantial capital gains. Assume that it is now 2016 and Marlene is currently evaluating two investment decisions: one involves an addition to their portfolio, the other a revision to it.
The Carters’ first investment decision involves a short-term trading opportunity. In particular, Marlene has a chance to buy a 7.5%, 25-year bond that is currently priced at $852 to yield 9%; she feels that in two years the promised yield of the issue should drop to 8%.
The second is a bond swap. The Carters hold some Beta Corporation 7%, 2029 bonds that are currently priced at $785. They want to improve both current income and yield to maturity and are considering one of three issues as a possible swap candidate: (a) Dental Floss, Inc., 7.5%, 2041, currently priced at $780; (b) Root Canal Products of America, 6.5%, 2029, selling at $885; and (c) Kansas City Dental Insurance, 8%, 2030, priced at $950. All of the swap candidates are of comparable quality and have comparable issue characteristics.
Questions
a. Regarding the short-term trading opportunity:
- What basic trading principle is involved in this situation?
- If Marlene’s expectations are correct, what will the price of this bond be in two years?
- What is the expected return on this investment?
- Should this investment be made? Why?
b. Regarding the bond swap opportunity:
- Compute the current yield and the promised yield (use semiannual compounding) for the bond the Carters currently hold and for each of the three swap candidates.
- Do any of the swap candidates provide better current income and/or current yield than the Beta Corporation bonds the Carters now hold? If so, which one(s)?
- Do you see any reason why Marlene should switch from her present bond holding into one of the other issues? If so, which swap candidate would be the best choice? Why?
Assignment Week 4
Dave and Marlene Carter live in the Boston area, where Dave has a successful orthodontics practice. Dave and Marlene have built up a sizable investment portfolio and have always had a major portion of their investments in fixed-income securities. They adhere to a fairly aggressive investment posture and actively go after both attractive current income and substantial capital gains. Assume that it is now 2010 and Marlene is currently evaluating two investment decisions: one involves an addition to their portfolio, the other a revision to it.
The Carters’ first investment decision involves a short-term trading opportunity. In particular, Marlene has a chance to buy a 7.5%, 25-year bond that is currently priced at $852 to yield 9%; she feels that in two years the promised yield of the issue should drop to 8%.
Questions
a. Regarding the short-term trading opportunity:
- What basic trading principle is involved in this situation?
Trading on forecasted interest rate behavior
- If Marlene’s expectations are correct, what will the price of this bond be in two years?
852*.09=76.68 76.68/.08=958.50
- What is the expected return on this investment? Excel
- Should this investment be made? Why?
I will now discuss whether I believe this investment should be made or not. I believe this investment should be made because there are good returns and interest rates and she believes the bond price will go up and NPV remains steady at more than 7.5%. As long as everything she forecast goes correctly as she thinks it will it should be a good investment, but she needs to remember that this is not a certain thing and things could easily go different then she predicted; this happens all the time. The fact that the yield is dropping is good sign that the bond is doing good and is considered a good thing because the bond price is going up. In conclusion after solving all the equations I think this investment should be made.
The second is a bond swap. The Carters hold some Beta Corporation 7%, 2023 bonds that are currently priced at $785. They want to improve both current income and yield-to-maturity, and are considering one of three issues as a possible swap candidate: (a) Dental Floss, Inc., 7.5%, 2035, currently priced at $780; (b) Root Canal Products of America, 6.5%, 2023, selling at $885; and (c) Kansas City Dental Insurance, 8%, 2024, priced at $950. All of the swap candidates are of comparable quality and have comparable issue characteristics.
b. Regarding the bond swap opportunity:
- Compute the current yield and the promised yield (use semiannual compounding) for the bond the Carters currently hold and for each of the three swap candidates. Excel
Current Yield
70/785=.089
75/780=.096
65/885=.073
80/950=.084
BP=785=70/(1+.089)^1+70/(1+.089)^2+70/(1+.089)^3+70/(1+.089)^4+70/(1+.089)^5+70/(1+.089)^6+70/(1+.089)^7+70/(1+.089)^8+70/(1+.089)^9+70/(1+.089)^10+70/(1+.089)^11+70/(1+.089)^12+70/(1+.089)^13+70/(1+.089)^14+70/(1+.089)^15+70/(1+.089)^16+70/(1+.089)^17+70/(1+.089)^18+70/(1+.089)^19+70/(1+.089)^20+70/(1+.089)^21+70/(1+.089)^22+70/(1+.089)^23+1000/(1+.089)^23=816.5584056
BP=780=75/(1+0.096)^1+75/(1+0.096)^2+75/(1+0.096)^3+75/(1+0.096)^4+75/(1+0.096)^5+75/(1+0.096)^6+75/(1+0.096)^7+75/(1+0.096)^8+75/(1+0.096)^9+75/(1+0.096)^10+75/(1+0.096)^11+75/(1+0.096)^12+75/(1+0.096)^13+75/(1+0.096)^14+75/(1+0.096)^15+75/(1+0.096)^16+75/(1+0.096)^17+75/(1+0.096)^18+75/(1+0.096)^19+75/(1+0.096)^20+75/(1+0.096)^21+75/(1+0.096)^22+75/(1+0.096)^23+1000/(1+0.096)^23=807.8147245
BP=885=65/(1+0.073)^1+65/(1+0.073)^2+65/(1+0.073)^3+65/(1+0.073)^4+65/(1+0.073)^5+65/(1+0.073)^6+65/(1+0.073)^7+65/(1+0.073)^8+65/(1+0.073)^9+65/(1+0.073)^10+65/(1+0.073)^11+65/(1+0.073)^12+65/(1+0.073)^13+65/(1+0.073)^14+65/(1+0.073)^15+65/(1+0.073)^16+65/(1+0.073)^17+65/(1+0.073)^18+65/(1+0.073)^19+65/(1+0.073)^20+65/(1+0.073)^21+65/(1+0.073)^22+65/(1+0.073)^23+1000/(1+0.073)^23=912.0866784
BP=950=80/(1+.084)^1+80/(1+.084)^2+80/(1+.084)^3+80/(1+.084)^4+80/(1+.084)^5+80/(1+.084)^6+80/(1+.084)^7+80/(1+.084)^8+80/(1+.084)^9+80/(1+.084)^10+80/(1+.084)^11+80/(1+.084)^12+80/(1+.084)^13+80/(1+.084)^14+80/(1+.084)^15+80/(1+.084)^16+80/(1+.084)^17+80/(1+.084)^18+80/(1+.084)^19+80/(1+.084)^20+80/(1+.084)^21+80/(1+.084)^22+80/(1+.084)^23+1000/(1+.084)^23=959.8301109
- Do any of the three swap candidates provide better current income and/or current yield than the Beta Corporation bonds the Carters now hold? If so, which one(s)?
Two of the swap candidates provide better income and yield than the Beta Corporation Bonds they currently hold. Root Canal Products of America provides a better yield then the Beta Corporation bonds they currently hold. Root Canal Products of America offers a promised yield of 912, while the Beta Corporation offers a promised yield of 817. Kansas City Dental Insurance also offers a higher yield then their current bond. It offers a promised yield of 960, which is higher, then, their current bond. Lastly Dental Floss Inc. offers a higher current yield, but its promised yield is lower then that of their current bond.
- Do you see any reason why Marlene should switch from her present bond holding into one of the other three issues? If so, which swap candidate would be the best choice? Why?
I believe Marlene should switch from her present bond holding into one of the other three issues. This is because they offer a higher yield and current income opportunity. The one I would suggest is Kansas City Dental Insurance. This is because it offers the highest promised yield and its current yield is just a little bit lower then that of its current bond.
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