Instructions: After the student calculates the answers to this homework he/she must submit the answers by placing them in the Assignment # _ Submittal Link in Bb by midnight of the date shown in the Course Roadmap and Syllabus. The Instructor does not allow late submissions therefore a score of zero (0) will be recorded for the assignment if submitted after midnight Eastern Time of the due date. Solutions for the assignment will be released in Bb the morning after the due date for access by students. Total points for the assignment is 140. Note: There is no partial credit given; either the answer is correct or incorrect.

 

Scenario: Ajax Manufacturing is an electronic test equipment manufacturing firm that markets a certain piece of specialty test equipment.  Ajax has several competitors who currently market similar pieces of equipment.  While customers have repeatedly indicated they prefer Ajax’s test equipment, they have historically proven to be unwilling to wait for Ajax to manufacture this certain piece of equipment on demand and will purchase their test equipment from Ajax’s competitors in the event Ajax does not have the equipment available in inventory for immediate delivery.  Thus, the key to Ajax successfully maintaining market share for this particular piece of equipment has been to have it available in stock for immediate delivery.  Unfortunately, it is a rather expensive piece of equipment to maintain in inventory.

 

Period   Actual Number of Sold Units                      Period   Actual Number of Sold Units

 

1             33                                                                       16           38

 

2             36                                                                       17           37

 

3             32                                                                       18           37

 

4             35                                                                       19           37

 

5             33                                                                       20           35

 

6             34                                                                       21           37

 

7             34                                                                       22           34

 

8             38                                                                       23           35

 

9             37                                                                       24           34

 

10           36                                                                       25           36

 

11           38                                                                       26           32

 

12           36                                                                       27           35

 

13           37                                                                       28           33

 

14           39                                                                       29           38

 

15           35                                                                       30           37

 

 

 

31           ? Forecast ?

 

 

 

 

 

Thus, the president of Ajax Manufacturing is very interested in accurately forecasting market demand in order to ensure he has adequate inventory available to meet customer demand without incurring undue inventory costs.  His sales department has provided historical data (in the table above) regarding market demand for this certain piece of specialty electronics test equipment for the past 30 months.

 

Instructions for Homework Assignment: Use the provided Excel file to construct a spreadsheet for each of the four models (Models 1-4) then answer Questions 26 – 28 based upon your calculations.

 

Model 1: Answer the following questions.

 

Question 1. Calculate the projected demand for the test equipment for the time periods 4 – 31 based upon a 3-month moving average forecast model. What is the projected demand for period 31? (5 points)

 

Question 2. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the 3-month moving average forecast for each of the time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 3. Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) for the 3-month moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 4. Calculate the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 3-month moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 5. Calculate the Standard Error for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 6. Calculate the Bias for the model. (5 points)

 

Model 2: Answer the following questions.

 

Question 7: Calculate the projected demand for the test equipment for the time periods 4 – 31 based upon a 3-month moving average forecast model for which the weighting factor for actual demand one month ago is 3, the weighting factor for actual demand two months ago is 2, and the weighting factor for actual demand three months ago is 1. What is the projected demand for period 31? (5 points)

 

Question 8: Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for each of the time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 9: Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) for the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 10: Calculate the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for time periods 4 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 11: Calculate the Standard Error for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 12: Calculate the Bias for the model. (5 points)

 

Model 3: Answer the following questions.

 

Question 13: Calculate the projected demand for the test equipment for the time periods 1 – 31 based upon using an exponential smoothing forecast model for which alpha = 0.25. Assume the Forecast is equal to the Demand for period 1. What is the projected demand for period 31? (5 points)

 

Question 14: Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the exponential smoothing forecast for each of the time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 15: Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) for the exponential smoothing forecast for time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 16: Calculate the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the exponential smoothing forecast for time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 17: Calculate the Standard Error for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 18: Calculate the Bias for the model. (5 points)

 

Model 4: Answer the following questions.

 

Question 19: Calculate the projected demand for the test equipment for the time periods 1 – 31 based upon using a Regression forecast model. What is the projected demand for period 31? (5 points)

 

Question 20: Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the Regression forecast for each of the time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 21: Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) for the Regression forecast for time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 22: Calculate the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the Regression forecast for time periods 1 through 30 and for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 23: Calculate the Standard Error for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 24: Calculate the Bias for the model. (5 points)

 

Question 25: Discuss the correlation between the two variables and is the relationship significant at the 95% level of confidence? (5 points)

 

Question 26: Based upon using mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the preceding forecast models provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy, and which of the preceding forecast models provides the least degree of forecasting accuracy? (5 points)

 

Question 27: Based upon using Bias as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the preceding forecast models provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy, and which of the preceding forecast models provides the least degree of forecasting accuracy? (5 points)

 

Question 28: Based upon using the Standard Error as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the preceding forecast models provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy, and which of the preceding forecast models provides the least degree of forecasting accuracy? (5 points

 

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You are the hospital administrator for a county hospital, which is funded in a large part by that county’s property taxes. You discover that you have an indigent patient who has been mistakenly admitted as an inpatient to the hospital strictly for dialysis treatment. The hospital does not, as a general practice, provide only dialysis treatment for patients. This is beyond the scope of the hospital’s mandate and is therefore, an inappropriate use of local property tax funding.

 

If the indigent patient is discharged from the hospital and dialysis treatment is terminated, the patient will become toxic and experience severe physical consequences, even death. However, if the patient is kept in the hospital for purposes of dialysis treatment only, the hospital must assume the burden of the patient’s debt, without revenue to cover the associated cost.

 

Based on your understanding of the above scenario, create a 2-page report in a Microsoft Word document that includes:

• Your decision to either keep the patient in hospital or discharge the patient. Provide a rationale for your decision.
• By utilizing the classic decision-making model outlined below, present the steps you will take as well as identify a solution.

Support your responses with examples.

Cite any sources in APA format. No Plagiarism will be checked by TURNITIN……

 

The classic decision-making model sets out the steps of managerial decision-making.

These are:

• Defining the problem.
• Identifying the stakeholders.
• Identifying alternative solutions.
• Evaluating alternative solutions.
• Making and implementing a decision.

 

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• Respond to each item. Each response should be concise and between 2–3 paragraphs in length.
• Use MS Word to write your responses, and submit your answers to all three questions in one Word document.
• Copy and paste each question within the document, so that your Instructor can see which question you are responding to.

1. Consider how understanding and being skillful in using an array of positive guidance strategies supports an early childhood professional in responding to children in an authoritative, and non-authoritarian, way. Then, in your own words, explain how you would use the decision-making model of child guidance to determine the best strategy for responding to a child’s specific behavior. Include considerations that you would keep in mind as you apply the decision-making model.

2. Self-reflection is a vital part of using positive guidance strategies with young children. Analyze the strategies presented in Chapter 5 and consider which you would feel comfortable using with young children and which may be more difficult for you to use. Describe one strategy that you could use comfortably and explain why. Identify one strategy that could be challenging for you and explain your concerns. Then describe a proactive approach that you could take to overcome your concerns and use this strategy effectively.

3. It is critical that adults help children learn positive strategies for solving problems and conflicts. Put yourself in the place of a preschool teacher working with a new aide who lacks skills in this area. Write a script or a brief summary that explains to the aide why children need to be active participants in solving their own problems and conflicts, and how to support children with appropriate strategies.

    

   Marion, M. (2015).  Guidance of young children  (9th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.

 

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Write a summary of a case study in any legal issue such as copyright, defamation or infringement. Integrate the case study with facts and information about the specific issues. The summary is usually very short since it provides less information than the real case. You have to use your own words by paraphrasing the case study in one or two paragraphs  not less than six statements.

 

Tips:

-Find a case study about any legal issue, read it.

-Find information about the definitions in the case study to help you to summarize the case. For example, if you have the word defamation, try to find the definition to understand it.

-Start writing, paraphrase the major facts in your own words.

-Proofread.

 

 

Rules:

–        Try to understand and explain in your paper the law terms such as (sued, homicide…ect). These, will be very helpful in your summary.

–        Be formal, don’t write things such as (I like … I think).

–        Write the summary, integrate this with information in one paper only. You can write one to two paragraphs (More than six sentences).only. This is not an essay. You have to provide a thesis or topic sentence in every paragraph.

–        Use the role of writing summaries that you have learned, you have to paraphrase facts.

 

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