You have heard of an expert who has a highly reliable “track record” in the correct identification of favorable vs. unfavorable market conditions. You are now considering whether to consult this “expert.” Therefore, you need to determine whether it would be worth paying the expert’s fee to get his prediction. In order to simplify the analysis, you have decided to look at two possible outcomes for each alternative (instead of three). You are interested in whether the market will be Favorable or Unfavorable, so you have collapsed the Medium and Low outcomes. Here are the three alternatives with their respective payoffs and probabilities.

Please view the attachment as a guidance to view the assignment.

Scenario: You have heard of an expert who has a highly reliable “track record” in the correct identification of favorable vs. unfavorable market conditions. You are now considering whether to consult this “expert.” Therefore, you need to determine whether it would be worth paying the expert’s fee to get his prediction.

In order to simplify the analysis, you have decided to look at two possible outcomes for each alternative (instead of three). You are interested in whether the market will be Favorable or Unfavorable, so you have collapsed the Medium and Low outcomes. Here are the three alternatives with their respective payoffs and probabilities.

Option A: Real estate development. This is a risky opportunity with the possibility of a high payoff, but also with no payoff at all. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the payoffs and probabilities:

High/Favorable NPV: $7.5 million, Pr = 0.5

Unfavorable NPV: $2.0 million, Pr = 0.5

Option B: Retail franchise for Just Hats, a boutique-type store selling fashion hats for men and women. This also is a risky opportunity but less so than Option A. It has the potential for less risk of failure, but also a lower payoff. You have reviewed all of the possible data for the outcomes in the next 10 years and these are your estimates of the NPV of the payoffs and probabilities.

High/Favorable NPV: $4.5 million, Pr = 0.75

Unfavorable NPV: $2.5 million, Pr = 0.25

Option C: High Yield Municipal Bonds. This option has low risk and is assumed to be a Certainty. So there is only one outcome with probability of 1.0:

NPV: $2.25 million, Pr = 1.0

You have contacted the expert and received a letter stating his track record which you have checked out using several resources. Here is his stated track record:

True State of the Market

Expert Prediction

Favorable

Unfavorable

Predicts “Favorable”

.9

.3

Predicts “Unfavorable”

.1

.7

You realize that this situation is a bit complicated since it requires the expert to analyze and predict the state of two different markets: the real estate market and the retail hat market. You think through the issues of probabilities and how to calculate the joint probabilities of both markets going up, both going down, or one up and the other down. Based on your original estimates of success, here are your calculations of the single probabilities and joint probabilities of the markets.

Probabilities

Favorable

Unfavorable

A: Real Estate

0.50

0.50

B: Just Hats

0.75

0.25

Joint Probabilities

A Fav, B Fav (A+, B+)

0.375

A Unf, B Unf (A-, B-)

0.125

A Fav, B Unf (A+, B-)

0.125

A Unf, B Fav (A-, B+)

0.375

Finally, after a great deal of analysis and calculation, you have determined the Posterior probabilities of Favorable and Unfavorable Markets for the Real Estate business and the boutique hat business.

Real Estate

Just Hats

F

U

F

U

0.45

says “F/F”

0.75

0.25

0.90

0.10

0.15

says “F/U”

0.75

0.25

0.30

0.70

0.30

says “U/F”

0.125

0.875

0.90

0.10

0.10

says “U/U”

0.125

0.875

0.30

0.70

For example, this table says that there is 45% chance that the expert will predict Favorable for both markets (F/F), and when he makes this prediction, there is a 75% chance that the Real Estate market will be favorable and 25% chance that it won’t, and also a 90% chance that the Hat market will be Favorable and 10% chance it won’t.

You have developed a Decision Tree showing the original collapsed solution and also showing an expanded Decision Tree for evaluating the value of the expert’s information. You need to enter the probabilities into this tree to see if the expert’s information will increase the overall expected value of your decision.

Assignment

Create the information in the Decision Tree in the Excel file. Please determine the Expected NPV of the decision if you were to consult the Expert. Does use of the Expert increase the value of your analysis? If so, by how much?

Compose a 10 to 15 slides PowerPoint presentation to your private investment company and explain your analysis and your recommendation. Have clear rationale/ justification for your decision. Audio/video feature is required in PowerPoint to present each slide. Be sure to check the Oral Communication Rubric (under Assessments>Rubrics) to understand the requirements for the PowerPoint presentation.

 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

So, what/who annoys you? And why? Related to your pet peeves: What sort of rule would you impose on others to “fix” this problem? How would you go about enforcing it–penalties/fines/executions–what? How would this improve your life?

Someone should do something…
This is ridiculous…
We must take action…
It’s time we stood and…
The omnipresent lament of the public, a rallying cry for action, or posturing of empty suit politicians.

Anywhoo, lotsa stuff annoys me: guys in tank tops who aren’t at the gym or playing a sport (it’s an undershirt at best not a fashion statement), parents who allow their children to call me by my first name, Tap Out/Affliction/Extreme Couture/Clinch Gear/Metal Mulisha/Hayabusa clothing (if you sport these brands, and you are not at that moment training or entering an MMA cage, you’re an idiot), hipsters, people who think drinking crappy beer puts them in touch with the working man, fans of Rush, anyone with a VR headset, people who want me to follow them on Twitter, people who think taking a stand equals “liking” something on Facebook, the phrase fake news, people who use hashtags in conversation, my brother-in-law, Twitter, tweets, Twilight (and their fans), kids who throw tantrums in the grocery store, parents who cave when their kid throws a tantrum in the grocery store, parents who give their kid a unique name by corrupting a normal name with a ridiculous spelling or pronunciation (almost a 100% correlation between this and the kid being a brat), Dan Lozano, Roger Goodell, Jerry Jones, “patriots” who associate patriotism with wearing items with the American flag on display, vaping, vapers, iPhones, iPads, Jeff Dunham, people who say a movie, “really makes you think…”, anyone on any reality TV show…Well, you get the picture.

The thing is, short of venting there isn’t a whole lot I can do about any of these irksome things. I mean, yeah, if I see some kid having a meltdown in the grocery store I’ll slap him when the parents aren’t looking, but that really doesn’t address the issue. We as a society are a group of grousing malcontents (also known as “haters”), but how often do we do anything to change the things we can’t stand?

That’s what a claim of policy sets out to do–identify a problem affecting some aspect of life, proving that this is an actual problem, and finally outlining how to fix it.

So, what/who annoys you? And why? Related to your pet peeves: What sort of rule would you impose on others to “fix” this problem? How would you go about enforcing it–penalties/fines/executions–what? How would this improve your life?

 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

Based on your readings this week, what does the research show about the new health club owner’s strategy to motivate members to visit the health club and exercise more often? Is she on the right track with her incentives plan? Why or why not? What does the literature show about the effect of external rewards on intrinsic motivation? Based on the persuasion literature, what techniques might be successful in helping the new owner attract new business? What clues does the persuasion literature offer in terms of how to market the gym and the incentives plan successfully? Finally, how might cognitive dissonance theory and/or self-perception theory play a role in members’ adopting and maintaining a healthy lifestyle?

This week you have read research on the theories of motivation, cognitive dissonance, and self-perception, as well as processing persuasive messages. Now you will have a chance to showcase what you have learned by creating a recommendation based on this scenario (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. about a local health club.

Your post should be approximately five hundred words in length and include appropriate APA-style citations and references as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.. In addition to citing the assigned works you read this week, please locate and cite at least two more peer-reviewed journal articles on one of the areas studied this week to support your position. These articles should be recent (published within the last 10 years).

Scenario: The Health Club

The local health club went out of business a few months ago, citing a lack of members who were committed to maintaining a healthy lifestyle. There is a new owner who is featured in a news article discussing her strategy for success in her new health club venture. Her plan is to give prizes and other incentives to members who visit the health club at least three times per week each month and log a one hour workout each time . She also plans to reduce the monthly member fees by a percentage for each pound a member loses up to the first 20 pounds lost. She is certain that the external incentives will increase members’ intrinsic motivation to adopt a healthier lifestyle and increase their amount of exercise.

Based on your readings this week, what does the research show about the new health club owner’s strategy to motivate members to visit the health club and exercise more often? Is she on the right track with her incentives plan? Why or why not? What does the literature show about the effect of external rewards on intrinsic motivation? Based on the persuasion literature, what techniques might be successful in helping the new owner attract new business? What clues does the persuasion literature offer in terms of how to market the gym and the incentives plan successfully? Finally, how might cognitive dissonance theory and/or self-perception theory play a role in members’ adopting and maintaining a healthy lifestyle?

 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

Researching the Humanities Do some research on the Internet to find out what “the study of humanities” is all about. Locate 3 good Internet sources that you think give a good answer to this question. Copy down the URLs and also be sure to include the titles of each web page.

Option 1: Researching the Humanities Do some research on the Internet to find out what “the study of humanities” is all about.

  • Locate 3 good Internet sources that you think give a good answer to this question.
  • Copy down the URLs and also be sure to include the titles of each web page.
  • Scan through your text to see what the study of humanities covers.
  • Write up your findings in an essay–note: this means more than one or two paragraphs.
  • Option 2: Exploring a topic of choice in more depth.
    Scan your text book and,
  • From any of the chapters select one topic that surprised you, or really interested you and do some Internet research on your topic.
  • Locate 3 good Internet sources that will give you more information about the topic of your choice.
  • Copy down the URLs and also be sure to include the titles of each web page.
  • Write up your findings in an essay–note this means more than one or two paragraphs.BE SURE TO INCLUDE the WEB SITES YOU FOUND, and explain why you think they are a good source for helping you understand the topic you chose.
 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

How would the patient’s care be handled in your community? Identify the nearest hospital to the area you have chosen that treats the problem. Trace the patient’s course to this hospital.

In Columbia,SC

..Does  community have the required medical resources to handle the patient’s problem?

  • How would the patient’s care be handled in your community? Identify the nearest hospital to the area you have chosen that treats the problem. Trace the patient’s course to this hospital.
  • List the healthcare professionals and facilities that would be encountered on the way.
  • Compare any two insurance plans and choose the one that would offer the most to the patient
  • Discuss the essential quality-of-care issues involved in this ca
  • se.  is the role of Telemedicine in your community and how do you access it? How does it affect the quality of care?

Standard Performance Measures

Standard performance measures are a way of collecting data across similar functions, processes, costs, and providers. Benchmarking against these standards has proven to be useful in healthcare as a tool to measure many facets of quality. Carefully evaluating these measures allows for management to design appropriate programs to assist with healthcare service needs and patients to make decisions about facility and provider services. Best Doctors, Inc. and WebMD are examples of these tools. Your discussions will focus on the use of information from these websites to make healthcare decisions.

Using the South University Online Library or the Internet, research about these measures and how they allow management to design appropriate programs to assist with healthcare service needs.

Based on your readings and research, answer the following:

  • Present a brief overview of the purpose for each of the Best Doctors, Inc. products. How are the “Best Doctors” of each type determined? Click here to visit the official Best Doctors website.
  • https://bestdoctors.com

Next, click here to read a case study about Mary Jones.

Mary faced several challenges in her ordeal, mainly dealing with her diagnosis and treatment. This was a result of her ability to seek additional assistance and to find diagnosis. She reviewed the WebMD website for additional data and other specialty physician sources. Click here to visit the official WebMD website.

https://www.webmd.com/default.htm

  • Do you feel this could have been addressed differently? Why?
  • Based on the information presented in this case, what are your observations about current consumer involvement in healthcare? What does this case teach about the use of computers to seek healthcare information?
 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

Write an imaginary case study for your hypothetical patient. Explain how the patient moved through the healthcare delivery system. With respect to the costs you calculated last week, describe how the patient will pay for the cost of treatment.

Disease Process

  • Write an imaginary case study for your hypothetical patient.
    • Explain how the patient moved through the healthcare delivery system.
    • With respect to the costs you calculated last week, describe how the patient will pay for the cost of treatment.
  • Analyze the healthcare delivery system as illustrated in this case. What problems did you notice? Would some people find it difficult to pay for treatment? Are there areas where treatment for this illness is unavailable or unaffordable to the common person?

Disease Process

  • Choose a payer type that is different from your choices in our discussions this week.
  • Compare the costs of covering healthcare services provided by this insurance in your area.
  • What insurance type is best suited for healthcare coverage of your hypothetical patient’s disease type?Write an imaginary case study for your hypothetical patient.
    • Explain how the patient moved through the healthcare delivery system.
    • With respect to the costs you calculated last week, describe how the patient will pay for the cost of treatment.
  • What insurance type is best suited for healthcare coverage of your hypothetical patient’s disease type?unaffordable to the common person?
 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

This exercise will be completed in a Power Point presentation as if the individual student were presenting it as a lesson for the rest of the class. Links to film clips, articles, and sites are encouraged. The minimum guidelines for the presentation are: Background on the Team/Person/Organization Selected What is notable? What do you want us to know about your topic? What are “they” doing right or wrong or both?

This exercise will be completed in a Power Point presentation as if the individual student were presenting it as a lesson for the rest of the class. Links to film clips, articles, and sites are encouraged. The minimum guidelines for the presentation are:

  • Background on the Team/Person/Organization Selected
  • What is notable? What do you want us to know about your topic? What are “they” doing right or wrong or both?
  • Evaluation looking at “them” through the Emotional Intelligence lens
  • Personal takeaways as a leader
  • References slide

I encourage you to remember, that the entire lesson that you are presenting needs to be clear through your presentation. The lesson must be obvious to those of us reviewing it. It is much more likely than not that it will take an average of 10 – 12 slides to fully communicate a solid “lesson” to your classmates and earn you full credit. This does not mean that the slides should be wordy; however, the slides should tell the whole story.  Some students are getting more tech savvy and have even added audio to the presentation though it is not a requirement. The advantage of the audio is that it provides the ability to communicate your lesson with less slides. If you choose to not use audio, then you must rely more heavily on the Power Point slides to communicate the full story. If you do choose to supplement with audio, please do not read the content of your slides word for word. The key here is that you are supplementing the slides not reading them to us. If you choose to not use audio, then you must rely more heavily on the Power Point slides to communicate the full story.  This does not mean that the slides should be wordy; however, the slides should tell the whole story.

In either case, do not write full paragraphs of script on slides.

If you are not familiar with the tools and techniques for preparing a well-developed Power Point, please research that topic on the web. It is highly recommend that you test out your Power Point to ensure that things work as you intended & that you utilize tools such as spell check before you submit it.  You will be graded on the quality of your presentation’s delivery as well as its content.

Also, remember that within your Power Point, you can take us to other websites. For instance, you can link us to video clips or articles that add important additional information for us to review. However, do not rely on these outside sources as the main tool for presenting the “lesson” – that is your job to do.

 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

For most of us, these questions might seem absurd. Barring theft, towing or anything external to my car, I can know that my car will be where I left it, because inanimate objects do not get up and move on their own. I can know this because previous empirical evidence has shown this to be a justified true belief. The questions of epistemology that Hume, Descartes, and Kant raise aren’t so much about whether or not knowledge exists, whether or not the justification for our true beliefs exists, but rather how such justification exists, and in what manner can we be justified in our true beliefs so as to secure some sense of certainty as it relates to our knowledge in general. That, we act as if we are justified in our true beliefs about the permanence or stability of inanimate objects, for example, but why?

So far this semester we have read about and discussed questions and problems in the areas of metaphysics and epistemology. Within metaphysics, we discussed issues with the notion of “realness” with regard to immaterial and material objects: to what degree can or should we consider immaterial objects as real? We’ve discussed the role that metaphysics can play in science: can science, which is invested in theorizing from that which can be adequately evidenced, sufficiently address the larger metaphysical implications of the theories it develops? We also looked at the status of “mind” in relation to the physical or material world: is “mind” something wholly independent and immaterial; is it bound wholly to the material attributes of brain; or is it something immaterial and yet materially grounded? And we looked at questions of free-will: can we have evidence of the existence of free-will, what proof do we have of the existence of free-will, how can one sufficiently prove or disprove the existence of free-will? Participant in these questions is the role of “realness” with regard to that which might lack direct sensorial proof/evidence, and the status of those things which have been previously thought of as essentially existent but not observationally apparent: to what degree is the notion of “realness” bound to the idea of observability?

Within this final question, we can sense the echoes of dualism that have appeared in our readings, that there is a seeming duality to humanity, one of the conceptual or thought, the other of the perceptual or world. This dualism plays itself out in the epistemological concerns we’ve likewise addressed. Participant in the epistemic questions we addressed is a question about the status of knowledge, i.e., what is its nature, which has traditionally forwarded the idea that to have knowledge is to have a justified true belief. This notion of justified can be understood as an attempt to bridge the seeming divide between the conceptual and the perceptual elements. Descartes, the more evident proponent for dualism, arguably attempts to secure knowledge by implying that the sole means by which knowledge is founded through rational, analytic, and a priori claims, that these are the only means for justifying a true believe so as to become knowledge. For Descartes, any attempt at justifying our true beliefs, i.e., knowledge, through the purely perceptual leads to questions of doubt for such claims due to the potential for deception and/or flaws in perception itself.

Taking as a point of contention Descartes’ reliance upon a kind of purity in concepts in the form of his innate ideas, Hume argues that the very origin of concepts is such that perception, i.e., experience, is participant, and that ideas are nothing more than the faint remnants of once vivid and lively impressions qua perceptions. As such, Hume raises the stakes of the role that justification plays with knowledge by arguing what justification can our impressions give us for such true beliefs as, say, causality? In other words, if conceptions in the form of ideas are the only means for justifying our true beliefs about causality, for example, and those ideas come from perceptual impressions that do not fully present all that our ideas can develop, how can we be justified in our beliefs that causality actually exists, that causality is actually “real”? Not necessarily a dualist, Hume is much more a skeptic as to what our conceptions can actually, sufficiently, and with justification say about the world of perception.

Inspired by the questions that Hume raises, Kant attempts to address the divide that is participant, the divide between the appearances of the perceptions and the supposed reality of our conceptual claims about them. By attempting to sidestep Hume’s understanding of experience, by depicting consciousness as more active in the very structure of experience itself, Kant attempts to secure the means by which we can have some sense of justification and certainty in our true beliefs, i.e., that we can have knowledge, by presenting a more modest understanding of the extent to which we can have knowledge, and what kinds of knowledge we can have.

For most of us, these questions might seem absurd. Barring theft, towing or anything external to my car, I can know that my car will be where I left it, because inanimate objects do not get up and move on their own. I can know this because previous empirical evidence has shown this to be a justified true belief. The questions of epistemology that Hume, Descartes, and Kant raise aren’t so much about whether or not knowledge exists, whether or not the justification for our true beliefs exists, but rather how such justification exists, and in what manner can we be justified in our true beliefs so as to secure some sense of certainty as it relates to our knowledge in general. That, we act as if we are justified in our true beliefs about the permanence or stability of inanimate objects, for example, but why?

For your midterm, I would like you to examine the notion of freedom. This is of course connected to the notion of free-will which we briefly discussed, and it is likewise connected to the questions of metaphysics we’ve addressed. For example, how can we have evidence of the existence of freedom? If we can have no direct evidence of freedom, how can we be certain it exists, i.e., that it is real? Likewise, questions about the existence of freedom can be problematized when handled epistemically. How do we know we have freedom, or free-will? What justification do we have for our beliefs in freedom? You are to address questions of freedom by first considering it from a metaphysical perspective, and then, considering it from through an epistemological lens. This is a rather large topic, and understandably it could be a lot to tackle, so what follows are some recommendations on how to approach your paper.

First, before you begin, you should make a distinction in your thoughts between freedom that is considered to be integral to humanity, i.e., free-will, and the kinds or types of freedoms that are institutionalized in, say, our Constitution. Those constitutionally guaranteed freedoms presuppose the existence of freedom in general, so to focus on them, rather than the more general notion of freedom, would be presupposing freedom’s existence without considering whether or not it exists, how it exists, how we can know it exists, etc., etc. What’s more, freedom is an extremely abstract notion. To this end, be clear in your mind about what you define freedom as being, and then present that understanding in the first part of your paper. For example, one might argue that freedom exists/doesn’t exist because freedom is nothing more than the potential to choose. By defining freedom as “choice making” one could then address the rest of the paper to the existence or non-existence of choices.

Second, structure your thoughts as much as possible before you begin writing. Come up with a plan for how you want to tackle the assignment. Start with either field, metaphysics or epistemology, and work your way to the other. For example, you might assert that freedom does not exist, that it lacks observability and therefore has no metaphysical status, because what is observable is that which is bound by deterministic unfolding (i.e., unfree), and that we can know this by looking at evidence x, y, and z. Or, you might assert that one can know that freedom exists by arguing from an a priori position, that we can have knowledge about that which we have no direct observation, that freedom may not be directly observable but is existent, and then conjecture about its metaphysical status.

Third, this assignment is intended to measure how well you understand some of the key concepts and arguments from philosophers that we’ve discussed thus far. You’ll need to utilize those concepts and ideas we’ve discussed so as to demonstrate that understanding. Be forewarned: Simply writing about your personal feelings and offering no proof that you’ve considered the topic within the context of the material of this course is far from the purpose of this paper.

 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"

Review the weekly lectures and supplemental materials provided, then complete the chart by elaborating on each section related to the weekly content. Identify key details and examples from the weekly resources to serve as a basis for the content being recorded in your chart.

Students, please view the “Submit a Clickable Rubric Assignment” in the Student Center.
Instructors, training on how to grade is within the Instructor Center.

*Be sure to download the attached World View Chart provided for these assignments.*

World View Chart Assignments
Due Weeks 2 through 10 and worth 35 points each week, with a total of 315 points.

A world view is a fundamental or basic orientation of thinking – like a mindset – which guides a culture and / or a person’s life. Like a point of view, it can be built of concepts, ideas, values, emotions, and ethics.Weltanschauung is the German word for this idea. Your goal for this course is to understand the world views of these various religions. In order to prepare you for your final assignment, you will outline the world views of various religions in the chart below, adding to it each week.

For this assignment, students will complete the weekly area of the chart, filling in the aspects of each religion as it is presented in the readings and resources. This chart, when complete, will be the starting point for the written assignment, due in Week 10.

For each weekly submission:

  1. Review the weekly lectures and supplemental materials provided, then complete the chart by elaborating on each section related to the weekly content.
  2. Identify key details and examples from the weekly resources to serve as a basis for the content being recorded in your chart.
  3. Write clearly and coherently using correct grammar, punctuation, spelling, and mechanics.

Religion

Cosmogony – Origin of the Universe

Nature of God

View of Human Nature

View of Good and Evil

View of “Salvation”

View of After Life

Practices and Rituals

Celebrations and Festivals

Week 2
Hinduism and Jainism

Week 3
Buddhism

Week 4
Daoism and
Confucianism

Week 5
Shinto 

Week 6
Judaism

Week 7
Christianity

Week 8
Islam

Week 9
Sikhism

Week 10
New Religious Movements

The specific course learning outcomes associated with this assignment are:

  • Analyze what is meant by religion.
  • Analyze the similarities and differences in the primary beliefs held by major religious traditions and the cultures in which these religions evolved.
  • Describe the varieties of religious experience and practice in a wide range of cultures.
  • Recognize how daily life within various religions and current affairs are influenced by religion.
  • Use technology and information resources to research issues in religion.
  • Write clearly and concisely about world religions using proper writing mechanics.

Click here to view the grading rubric for this assignment.

REL212WorldViewChart.alternateversion.docx
REL212WorldViewChart.docx

  • attachment

    REL212WorldViewC
 

"Looking for a Similar Assignment? Get Expert Help at an Amazing Discount!"